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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."